Obama & Roxana Saberi

It was announced earlier this week that at least 70% of Americans are happy with the direction in which Obama is taking America.

Rarely, far more people think that the country is heading in the right direction than not.

I must say this surprises me greatly, because I can't really see that Obama is headed in the right direction at all, particularly when it comes to foreign policy.

The tip of this iceberg is the case of US journalist Roxana Saberi, arrested in Iran in January - allegedly for buying a bottle of wine.

Miss Saberi, who is of Iranian and Japanese parentage, was then accused of working as a journalist without a valid press card. Finally, on 8th April 2009, the charges against her were upgraded to a full blown accusation that she was an American spy.

Between January and March, Miss Saberi was only able to contact her family twice, and confirmed that she was being held in Tehran's Evin Prison. She claimed that she was not being physically harmed.

On 20th of April she was convicted of espionage and sentenced to 8 years in prison.


It is understood that Iranian President Ahmadinejad personally told the prosecutor that Saberi should be permitted a proper defence.

However, it has now been announced that Miss Saberi is on hunger strike, and has been so for five days.

The BBC refers to this as a 'strange case'. Former colleagues of Miss Saberi describe her as careful, and insist she was aware of the dangers of operating as a Western journalist in a repressive state and would not have taken unnecessary risks.

So what exactly is going on?

In my humble opinion, Miss Saberi is a pawn in the game between Obama and Ahmadinejad. Admittedly, she was arrested before Obama's Newroz message overture to the Iranian regime, but the charges have been slowly escalating, and now obviously she is in prison and possibly in grave danger.

Her father and Western observers claim that the trial was a sham which lasted only a few minutes.

This is quite clearly a test of Obama's mettle. Some disagree; they claim it is the easiest way for Iranian hardliners to shoot down Obama's peace and reconciliation hopes in flames, by forcing his hand.

There's probably some partial truth in this. However, what I see is a very inexperienced US President increasingly floundering and being played by his friends and his enemies alike when it comes to the world stage.

The world is curious; how far can this man, who talks peace and has no real foreign policy experience, be pushed?

How far will he go to preserve the fantasy of an America loved equally by all the peoples of the world?

My fear is that he will actually go quite far. Then, like Bush, when he feels forced up against the wall, he may well lash out and regret it. Unlike Bush, he seems to believe that every other leader on earth is also a naive optimist who just wants to play nice.

That is a hallmark of inexperience.

As 'The Frozen North' has it:

At least Obama has finally spoken up about Saberi’s case. He says that “we are going to be in contact” with Iran via the Swiss, and that it is “appropriate” that Saberi is released. (Tough talk, eh?) It’s not clear why Saberi being released should be seen as ”a coup” for Obama. If Saberi is innocent, and Iran is playing political games here, then forcing an American president to go on bended knee to them, via the Swiss, would be something of “a coup” for Iran, not for America.

Exactly. The problem with negotiating with regimes such as Iran's is that there is very little common ground, which is absolutely necessary for meaningful dialogue, promises and compromise.

If one side wants peace and the other simply sees peace as a stop on the road to more concessions and ultimate victory - well, we have the Israeli-Arab conflict. This is the elephant in the room when it comes to modern negotiations, but that doesn't mean it's untrue.

I am fairly confident that if Ahmadinejad thought of Obama as a man who says what he means and means what he says, then Miss Saberi would be back at home.

These are dangerous times - can the civilised world afford Obama's learning curve?

As Miss Saberi turns 32 in Iranian custody today, I would suggest not.

Hat tip: The Frozen North.